Abstract

Age data frequently display excess frequencies at attractive numbers, such as multiples of five. We use this “age heaping” to measure cognitive ability in quantitative reasoning, or “numeracy”. We construct a database of age heaping-based estimates of basic numeracy with exceptional geographic and temporal coverage

Author(s)

Baten, Joerg, University of Tuebingen.; with the help of several coauthors, without implying any responsibility to them for potential mistakes (Valeria Prayon, Dorothee Crayen, Dácil Juif, Ralph Hippe, Christina Mumme and many others)

Production date

2013-12-26

Variable(s)

Numeracy estimates (ABCC) of both genders in percent

Keywords

Numeracy, education

Time period

1500 -1970. All data refer to the birth decadal average (1810 means 1810-19 etc)

Geographical coverage

Worldwide

Methodologies used for data collection and processing

Reconstruction of basic numeracy by birth decade using a variety of different sources. See also the text below. The ABCC is a linear transformation of the Whipple index of age heaping

Period of collection

See references

Data collectors

Joerg Baten, Valeria Prayon, Dorothee Crayen, Dácil Juif, Ralph Hippe, Christina Mumme, and many colleagues from around the world


As good as possible, but counter-checking and improvement welcome. Interpretations on individual country level should be done with careful checking. In the ClioInfra quality coding, none of the ABCC obtains a 1 (“official governmental statistic”) or a 4 (“Conjecture, guesstimate). All the ABCCs which are based on UN Demographic Yearbooks or which contain the word “Census” in the title referenced in the bibliography/list of references should obtain a 2, because those ABCC values are calculated with official statistical data, but by the authors, not by the government. All other estimates should obtain a 3

General references

None of the Whipple estimates of the modestly sized literature entered

the data set unchanged, three general references which should be cited

(because they reflect most of the literature) are

A’Hearn Baten Crayen 2009: Brian A’Hearn, Joerg Baten and Dorothee

Crayen: “Quantifying Quantitative Literacy: Age Heaping and the

History of Human Capital”. Journal of Economic History 69-3 (Sept

2009), pp.783-808.

Crayen Baten 2010: Crayen, D., and Baten, J. (2010). Global Trends in

Numeracy 1820-1949 and its Implications for Long-Run Growth.

Explorations in Economic History, 47(1): 82-99.

Prayon and Baten (2013): Valeria Prayon and Joerg Baten: “Human

Capital, Institutions, Settler Mortality, and Economic Growth in Africa,

Asia and the Americas”. Working Paper Univ. Tuebingen 2013.

But as the underlying age data comes from a variety of sources, here is

the complete list:

(we first reported authors and year; then author with first name;

finally title)

References

A’Hearn Baten Crayen 2009: Brian A’Hearn, Joerg Baten and Dorothee

Crayen: “Quantifying Quantitative Literacy: Age Heaping and the

History of Human Capital”. Journal of Economic History 69-3 (Sept

2009), pp.783-808.

Argentina 1869: Argentina, National census data of 1869, published in

Somoza, J., Lattes, A., 1967. Muestras de los dos primeros censos

nacionales de población, 1869 y 1895. Documento de Trabajo No 46,

Instituto T. Di Tella, CIS, Buenos Aires

Argentina 1895: National census data of 1869 and 1895, published in

Somoza, J., Lattes, A., 1967. Muestras de los dos primeros censos

nacionales de población, 1869 y 1895. Documento de Trabajo No 46,

Instituto T. Di Tella, CIS, Buenos Aires

Baten Sohn 2013: Baten, J and Kitae Sohn: “Back to the ‘Normal’

Level of Human-Capital Driven Growth? A Note on Early Numeracy in Korea,

China and Japan, 1550–1800”, University of Tübingen Working Papers

in economics and finance, No. 52

Baten Fourie 2013: Baten, J, and Johan Fourie “Numeracy in the 18th

Century Indian Ocean Region”): ERSA Working Paper No. 270 (2013)

Baten Ma Morgan Wang 2010: Baten, J., Debin Ma, Stephen Morgan and Qing

Wang (2010) “Evolution of Living Standards and Human Capital in China

in the 18-20th Centuries: Evidences from Real Wages, Age-heaping, and

Anthropometrics”, Explorations in Economic History 47-3: 347-359

Brazil 1970: VIII Recenseamento Geral do Brasil. Censo Demográfico de

1970.

Cairo 1848: see Ghanem 2012

Canada 1852 and 1881: Historical Censuses of Canada (Canada East, Canada

West, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia). Université de Montréal,

Montréal;

Costa Rica 1927: Censo 1927: “Censo de Población de 1927” (online)

Centro Centroamreicano de Población (CCP), HYPERLINK

"http://ccp.ucr.ac.cr/bvp/censos/1927/index.html"

http://ccp.ucr.ac.cr/bvp/censos/1927/index.html (assessed on

2012-05-29)

Crayen Baten 2010: Crayen, D., and Baten, J. (2010). Global Trends in

Numeracy 1820-1949 and its Implications for Long-Run Growth.

Explorations in Economic History, 47(1): 82-99.

DHS: Demographic and Health Surveys, various countries (abbreviated with

2-char ISO code) and years. HYPERLINK "http://www.measuredhs.com"

www.measuredhs.com last accessed 131226

Eberhardt 2010: Eberhart, Helmut et al. (2010), Preliminary dataset

“Albanische Volkszaehlung von 1918”, entstanden an der

Karl-Franzens-Universita¨t Graz unter Mitarbeit von Helmut Eberhart,

Karl Kaser, Siegfried Gruber, Gentiana Kera, Enriketa Papa-Pandelejmoni

und finanziert durch Mittel des Oesterreichischen Fonds zur Foerderung

der wissenschaftlichen Forschung; (FWF).

Egypt 1848: Census of Cairo,

Egypt 1907: Census of Egypt: The Statistical Department of the Ministry

of Finance Egypt, 1907. Statistical yearbook of Egypt. 3rd census of

Egypt 1905. Cairo, The Government Press;

HYPERLINK "http://www.familysearch.org" www.familysearch.org :

Mortality registers of Sweden, last accessed 131226

Grether 2012: Grether, Kathrin (2012), Langfristige

Humankapitalentwicklung auf den Philippinen im international Vergleich.

Unpubl. BA Thesis Univ. Tuebingen

Gruber undated: Siegfried Gruber, Friendly communication, who collected

visitation data on a number of Serbian villages. Siegfried Gruber,

Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Centre for Southeast European History,

Project ‘‘Kinship and Social; Security”

Guettler 2011: Guettler, Sabine (2011), Verbreitung der

Bildungsinnovationen in Peru und Ecuador im 18. und 19. Jahrhundert,

Unpubl. Diploma Thesis Univ. Tuebingen

Habsburg 1880: Austro-Hungarian census of 1880, published as

Österreichische Statistik, Band 1, Heft 1–3, Band 2, Heft 1–2 and

Band 5, Heft 3, 1882–1884. The evidence covers Austria, Bosnia and

Herzegovina, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia. We

merged Austrian, Russian, and German regional statistics to obtain

weighed averages for the modern territories of Ukraine and Poland.

Hippe Baten 2012: Hippe, R. and Baten, J. (2012) “The Early Regional

Development of Human Capital in Europe, 1790 – 1880, Scandinavian

Economic History Review, 60, Number 3, 1 November 2012 , pp. 254-289

India 1881-1921: 1891-1921 (Census of India, 1891 (Bombay, Madras,

North-Western Provinces) Indian Empire Census of 1891, 1901, 1911 and

1921. The Superintendent of Government Printing India, Calcutta;

IPUMS: Ruggles Alexander Genadek Goeken Schroeder Sobek 2010: Ruggles,

S., Alexander, J.T., Genadek, K., Goeken, R., Schroeder, M.B., and

Sobek, M. (2010). Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0

[Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

Japan 1882: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, 1882. First

Statistical Yearbook of the Japan Empire. Population statistics of the

Province of Kai 1879 (today’s Yamamashu Prefecture). Government

Publications, Tokyo;

Juif Baten 2013: Juif, D.-T., Baten, J. (2013). “On the Human Capital

of ‘Inca’ Indios before and after the Spanish Conquest. Was there a

“Pre-Colonial Legacy”?”,Explorations in Economic History 50-2

(2013), pp. 227-41. Older version: Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics

and Finance 27.

Manzel 2009: Kerstin Manzel 2009. Essays on Human Capital Development in

Latin America and Spain, Dissertation, Univ. Tuebingen

Manzel Baten and Stolz 2012: Manzel, K., Baten, J. and Stolz, Y. (2012)

“Convergence and Divergence of Numeracy: The Development of Age

Heaping in Latin America, 17th to 20th Century”, Economic History

Review 65, 3 (2012), pp. 932–960. Detailed sources are listed in their

online appendix p.4/5

Manzel Baten 2009: Manzel, K. and Baten, J. (2009). Gender Equality and

Inequality in Numeracy: The Case of Latin America and the Caribbean,

1880-1949. Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History,

27(1): 37-74.

Matic 2010: Matic, E. (2010). Die Humankapitalentwicklung in Bulgarien

und Bosnien im 19./20. Jahrhundert. Unveröff. Bachelor-Arbeit

Universität Tübingen.

Meinzer 2013: Meinzer, Nicholas (2013) “The selectivity of migrants to

Australia: a new methodological approach”. Unpubl. Master thesis Univ.

Tuebingen.

Pertschy 2012: Pertschy, Robert (2012), Regionale Unterschiede der

langfristigen Humankapitalentwicklung in Chile im 19. Jahrhundert.

Unpubl. BA Thesis Univ. Tuebingen;

Rothenbacher 2002: Rothenbacher, F. (2002). The European Population

1850-1945. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

Russia 1959 and 1970: Demoskop Weekly (2001). ėlektronnaja versija

bjulletenja Naselenie i obščestvo. Institut Demografii

Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta, Vysšej Školy Ėkonomiki, Moskva.

Russian 1897: Russian Empire: First General Russian Empire Census of

1897.

Schneider 2011: Schneider, Christian (2011), Das Humankapital in den

Regionen Ecuadors, Unpubl. Diploma Thesis Univ. Tuebingen

Starbatty 2011: Starbatty, Peter (2011). Humankapitalentwicklung im

Osmanischen Reich 1760-1810. Regionale und ethnische Unterschiede.

Unpubl. BA Thesis Univ. Tuebingen.

Stolz Baten Botelho 2013: Stolz, Yvonne, Baten, J. and Botelho, T.

"Growth effects of 19th century mass migrations: “Fome Zero” for

Brazil?" European Review of Economic History 17-1 (2013), pp. 95-121.

Older version: Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 20

Stolz Baten Reis 2013: Stolz, Yvonne, Baten, J. and Jaime Reis,

“Portuguese Living Standards 1720-1980 in European Comparison –

Heights, Income and Human Capital”, Economic History Review 66-2

(2013), pp. 545-578

United Kingdom 1851: Anderson, M. et al., 1979. National sample from the

1851 census of Great Britain [computer file]. Supplied by History Data

Service, UK Data Archive (SN: 1316). Colchester, Essex; Schuerer, K.,

Woollard, M., 2002.

United Kingdom 1881: National sample from the 1881 census of Great

Britain [computer file]. Supplied by History Data Service, UK Data

Archive (SN: 4375). Colchester, Essex;

UNDYB various years: United Nations, Department of International

Economic and Social Affairs, Statistical Office (various issues).

Demographic Yearbook. New York: United Nations.

United States 1850, 1860, 1870, 1880, 1900: Ruggles, S., Alexander,

J.T., Genadek, K., Goeken, R., Schroeder, M.B., and Sobek, M. (2010).

Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable

database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota

The titles cited above were used for the following countries and year:

Country From (or only birth decade) To Source (see above)

Austria 1620

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 17th C

Austria 1710 1790 Stolz Baten Reis 2013

Austria 1770

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to late 18th C

Austria 1800

Habsburg 1880

Austria 1810 1880 Rothenbacher 2002

Belgium 1720

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 18th C

Belgium 1760 1890 Rothenbacher 2002

France 1670

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009

France 1720 1790 Stolz Baten Reis 2013

France 1910 1960 1990 UNDYB

France 1800 1900 Rothenbacher 2002

Germany 1830 1900 Rothenbacher 2002

Germany 1910

UNDYB

Germany 1710 1790 Stolz Baten Reis 2013

Germany 1800

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 19th C

Germany 1620

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, protestant part of Germany, refers to early

17th C

Germany 1670

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, protestant part of Germany, refers to late

17th C

Germany 1500

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to late 15th C Wuerttemberg

Luxembourg 1810 1870 Rothenbacher 2002

Netherlands 1770 1880 Rothenbacher 2002

Netherlands 1500

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to late 15th C

Switzerland 1720

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 18th C

Switzerland 1910 1960 1990 UNDYB

Switzerland 1780 1890 Rothenbacher 2002

Switzerland 1620

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 17th C

Denmark 1710 1770 Stolz Baten Reis 2013

Denmark 1790 1890 Rothenbacher 2002

Estonia 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Estonia 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Finland 1800 1890 Rothenbacher 2002

Finland 1960

1990 UNDYB

Finland 1900 1950 1985 UNDYB

Iceland 1820 1900 Rothenbacher 2002

Ireland 1800

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009

Ireland 1780 1790 Stolz Baten Reis 2013

Ireland 1840 1890 Rothenbacher 2002

Ireland 1900 1950 1979 UNDYB

Ireland 1960

1991 UNDYB

Latvia 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Latvia 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Lithuania 1950 1960 1989 UNDYB

Lithuania 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Lithuania 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Norway 1800

Rothenbacher 2002

Norway 1810 1870 Norway 1861-1900

Norway 1900 1950 1980 UNDYB

Norway 1770

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to late 18th C

Norway 1960

1990 UNDYB

Sweden 1650

Calculated based on feath registers from familysearch.org (probably

downward bias)

Sweden 1910 1960 1991 UNDYB

Sweden 1800 1900 Rothenbacher 2002

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 1930 1960 1991

UNDYB

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 1810 1820 United

Kingdom 1851

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 1780 1790 Stolz

Baten Reis 2013

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 1620

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 17th C

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 1800 1900

Rothenbacher 2002

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 1770

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to late 18th C

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 1910 1920 1951

UNDYB

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 1720

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 18th C

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 1840 1850 United

Kingdom 1881

Bosnia and Herzegovina 1910 1960 1991 UNDYB

Croatia 1800 1850 Habsburg 1880

Greece 1870 1920 UNDYB

Italy 1720 1770 Stolz Baten Reis 2013

Italy 1790 1900 Rothenbacher 2002

Italy 1520

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009

Malta 1870 1920 UNDYB

Portugal 1620

Juif Baten 2013, refers to early 17th C

Portugal 1720 1790 Stolz Baten Reis 2013

Portugal 1520

Juif Baten 2013, refers to early 16th C

Portugal 1670

Juif Baten 2013, refers to late 17th C

Portugal 1570

Juif Baten 2013, refers to late 16th C

Portugal 1860 1910 Rothenbacher 2002

Slovenia 1810 1850 Habsburg 1880

Slovenia 1910 1960 1989 UNDYB

Spain 1710 1720 Stolz Baten Reis 2013

Spain 1620

Juif Baten 2013, refers to early 17th C

Spain 1570

Juif Baten 2013, refers to late 16th C

Spain 1670

Juif Baten 2013, refers to late 17th C

Spain 1830 1940 Crayen and Baten 2010

Spain 1520

Juif Baten 2013, refers to early 16th C

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 1910 1960 1994 UNDYB

Belarus 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Belarus 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Bulgaria 1890 1940 1970 UNDYB

Czech Republic 1800

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 19th C

Czech Republic 1840 1900 Rothenbacher 2002

Czech Republic 1720

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 18th C

Czech Republic 1810 1830 Habsburg 1880

Czech Republic 1770

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to late 18th C

Czech Republic 1620

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 17th C

Czechoslovakia (until 1993) 1810 1830 Habsburg 1880

Czechoslovakia (until 1993) 1790 1800 Crayen and Baten 2010; Gruber

undated

Hungary 1800 1840 Habsburg 1880

Hungary 1930 1960 1990 UNDYB

Hungary 1720 1760 Stolz Baten Reis 2013

Hungary 1670 1770 A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009

Hungary 1870 1920 Rothenbacher 2002

Poland 1900 1950 1978 UNDYB

Poland 1800

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 19th C

Poland 1870 1890 Rothenbacher 2002

Poland 1770

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to late 18th C

Poland 1820 1860 Russia 1897, Hippe and Baten 2012

Republic of Moldova 1950 1960 1989 UNDYB

Republic of Moldova 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Republic of Moldova 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Romania 1880 1930 1966 UNDYB

Romania 1950 1960 1992 UNDYB

Romania 1940

1970 UNDYB

Romania 1800 1840 Habsburg 1880

Russian Federation 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Russian Federation 1800

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to early 19th C

Russian Federation 1950 1960 1989 UNDYB

Russian Federation 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Russian Federation 1720 1760 Stolz Baten Reis 2013

Russian Federation 1670

A'Hearn Baten Crayen 2009, refers to late 17th C

Slovakia 1800 1840 Habsburg 1880

Ukraine 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Ukraine 1800 1810 Habsburg 1880

Ukraine 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Bermuda 1950 1960 1991 UNDYB

Bermuda 1930 1940 1970 UNDYB

Bermuda 1870 1920 1950 UNDYB

Canada 1960

1991 UNDYB

Canada 1900 1950 1971 UNDYB

Canada 1810 1850 Canada 1852 and 1881

Canada 1890

1976 UNDYB

Canada 1780 1800 Historical Census of Canada 1852

Greenland 1930

1965 UNDYB

Greenland 1870 1920 1951 UNDYB

United States of America 1890 1920 1950 UNDYB

United States of America 1930 1950 1980 UNDYB

United States of America 1770 1800 Ruggles et al. 2010

United States of America 1810 1880 IPUMS

United States of America 1960

1990 UNDYB

Aruba 1910 1960 1991 UNDYB

Bahamas 1910 1960 1990 UNDYB

Barbados 1860 1910 UNDYB

British Virgin Islands 1910 1960 1991 UNDYB

Cayman Islands 1920 1970 1998 UNDYB

Cuba 1900 1950 1981 UNDYB

Dominican Republic 1930 1940 Manzel Baten 2009

Dominican Republic 1870 1920 1950 UNDYB

Grenada 1860 1910 UNDYB

Guadeloupe 1880 1930 1967 UNDYB

Haiti 1870 1920 1950 UNDYB

Haiti 1930 1940 UNDYB

Jamaica 1910 1960 1991 UNDYB

Martinique 1880 1930 1967 UNDYB

Martinique 1940 1960 1990 UNDYB

Netherlands Antilles (until 2010) 1910 1960 1992 UNDYB

Puerto Rico 1870 1920 1950 UNDYB

Puerto Rico 1930 1960 1990 UNDYB

Saint Lucia 1910 1960 1991 UNDYB

Trinidad and Tobago 1860 1910 1946 UNDYB

Belize 1860 1910 1950 UNDYB

Costa Rica 1940

UNDYB

Costa Rica 1840 1890 CostaRica 1927

Costa Rica 1900 1930 1963 UNDYB

El Salvador 1870 1920 1950 UNDYB

El Salvador 1930 1940 Manzel Baten 2009

Guatemala 1870 1920 1950 UNDYB

Honduras 1890 1940 1974 UNDYB

Mexico 1870 1900 Manzel, Baten and Stolz 2012

Mexico 1680 1800 Manzel Baten Stolz 2012

Mexico 1910 1960 1990 UNDYB

Nicaragua 1870 1920 1950 UNDYB

Nicaragua 1930

1963 UNDYB

Nicaragua 1940

UNDYB

Panama 1950

1980 UNDYB

Panama 1960

1990 UNDYB

Panama 1870 1920 1950 UNDYB

Panama 1930

1960 UNDYB

Argentina 1680 1790 Manzel Baten Stolz 2012

Argentina 1810 1860 Manzel, Baten and Stolz 2012

Argentina 1900 1950 1980 UNDYB

Argentina 1870 1880 Argentina 1914

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 1950 1960 1992 UNDYB

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 1870 1880 UNDYB

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 1890 1940 1976 UNDYB

Brazil 1830 1890 Stolz, Baten and Botelho 2013

Brazil 1810 1820 Manzel, Baten and Stolz 2012

Brazil 1900 1920 UNDYB

Brazil 1770 1800 Stolz/Baten/Bothelho

Chile 1890 1940 UNDYB

Colombia 1810 1840 Manzel, Baten and Stolz 2012

Colombia 1940 1950 1985 UNDYB

Colombia 1880 1930 1964 UNDYB

Ecuador 1810 1840 Manzel Baten Stolz 2012

Ecuador 1870 1880 UNDYB

Ecuador 1890 1940 1974 UNDYB

Ecuador 1790 1800 Manzel Baten Stolz 2012; Schneider 2011

Ecuador 1950 1960 1990 UNDYB

French Guiana 1880 1930 1967 UNDYB

Guyana 1860 1910 UNDYB

Paraguay 1880 1930 UNDYB

Peru 1860 1910 Manzel, Baten and Stolz 2012

Suriname 1880 1930 1964 UNDYB

Uruguay 1780 1800 Manzel Baten Stolz 2012

Uruguay 1940

1975 UNDYB

Uruguay 1880 1930 1963 UNDYB

Uruguay 1810 1840 Manzel, Baten and Stolz 2012

Uruguay 1950

1985 UNDYB

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 1770 1790 Manzel Baten Stolz 2012

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 1870 1920 1950 UNDYB

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 1930 1940 Manzel Baten 2009

Australia 1920 1960 1991 UNDYB

Australia 1860 1910 1947 UNDYB

New Zealand 1860 1910 1945 UNDYB

New Zealand 1960

1991 UNDYB

New Zealand 1920 1930 1961 UNDYB

New Zealand 1940 1950 1986 UNDYB

Fiji 1920 1930 1966 UNDYB

Fiji 1860 1910 1946 UNDYB

Fiji 1940 1950 1986 UNDYB

Vanuatu 1910 1960 1989 UNDYB

Guam 1920 1970 2000 UNDYB

Marshall Islands 1910 1960 1988 UNDYB

Micronesia (Federated States of) 1950 1970 1999 UNDYB

Cook Islands 1910 1960 1996 UNDYB

French Polynesia 1900 1950 1986 UNDYB

Tonga 1900 1950 1986 UNDYB

Afghanistan 1900 1950 1979 UNDYB

Bangladesh 1900 1940 1974 UNDYB

India 1900 1940 UNDYB

India 1830 1890 India 1881-1921

Iran (Islamic Republic of) 1880 1930 UNDYB

Maldives 1940 1950 1985 UNDYB

Maldives 1880 1930 1967 UNDYB

Nepal 1900 1950 UNDYB

Pakistan 1900 1940 Pakistan 1973

Sri Lanka 1860 1950 UNDYB

China 1900

UNDYB

China 1670 1770 Baten Sohn 2013

China 1910 1960 1990 UNDYB

China 1820 1890 Baten et al. 2010

China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 1940 1950 1986 UNDYB

China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 1960

1991 UNDYB

China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 1880 1930 1961 UNDYB

China, Macao Special Administrative Region 1910 1960 1991 UNDYB

Japan 1890

UNDYB

Japan 1900 1950 1985 UNDYB

Japan 1800

Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications 1882

Japan 1590

Baten Sohn 2013

Japan 1960

1990 UNDYB

Japan 1810 1880 Japan 1882

Mongolia 1910 1960 1990 UNDYB

Republic of Korea 1930

1960 UNDYB

Republic of Korea 1870 1920 1955 UNDYB

Republic of Korea 1940 1950 1980 UNDYB

Republic of Korea 1960

1990 UNDYB

Cyprus 1920 1960 1992 UNDYB

Brunei Darussalam 1950

1981 UNDYB

Brunei Darussalam 1890 1940 1971 UNDYB

Cyprus 1860 1910 1946 UNDYB

Cambodia 1880 1930 1962 UNDYB

Indonesia (until 1999) 1860 1890 Crayen and Baten 2010

Indonesia (until 1999) 1900 1950 UNDYB

Malaysia 1870 1930 Crayen and Baten 2010

Myanmar 1840 1870 India 1881-1921

Philippines 1870 1920 1948 UNDYB

Philippines 1930

1960 UNDYB

Singapore 1920 1970 2000 UNDYB

Thailand 1860 1910 1947 UNDYB

Thailand 1920 1930 UNDYB

Viet Nam 1910 1960 1989 UNDYB

Armenia 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Armenia 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Azerbaijan 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Azerbaijan 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Bahrain 1890 1940 1971 UNDYB

Bahrain 1960

1991 UNDYB

Bahrain 1970

2001 UNDYB

Bahrain 1950

1981 UNDYB

Georgia 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Georgia 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Iraq 1880 1930 UNDYB

Israel 1870 1920 UNDYB

Kuwait 1880 1930 1970 UNDYB

Occupied Palestinian Territory 1910 1960 1991 UNDYB

Qatar 1900

1986 UNDYB

Syrian Arab Republic 1890 1940 UNDYB

Turkey 1870 1920 1950 UNDYB

Turkey 1950 1960 1990 UNDYB

Turkey 1930

1965 UNDYB

Turkey 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Yemen 1940 1960 1991ye DHS

Kazakhstan 1950 1960 1989 UNDYB

Kazakhstan 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Kazakhstan 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Kyrgyzstan 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Kyrgyzstan 1950 1960 1989 UNDYB

Kyrgyzstan 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Tajikistan 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Tajikistan 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Turkmenistan 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Turkmenistan 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Uzbekistan 1820 1860 Russia 1897

Uzbekistan 1880 1940 Russia 1959 1970

Algeria 1890 1930 1966 UNDYB

Egypt 1810 1820 Egypt 1848

Egypt 1830 1860 Egypt 1907

Egypt 1870 1910 1947 UNDYB

Egypt 1770 1800 Census of Cairo 1848; Ghanem 2012

Libya 1890 1940 UNDYB

Morocco 1880 1930 1960 UNDYB

Tunisia 1880 1930 1966 UNDYB

Benin 1900 1950 1979 UNDYB

Burkina Faso 1900 1950 1985 UNDYB

Cape Verde 1910 1960 1990 UNDYB

Cote d'Ivoire 1910 1960 1988 UNDYB

Gambia 1890 1940 UNDYB

Ghana 1880 1940 UNDYB

Guinea-Bissau 1870 1920 UNDYB

Liberia 1890 1930 1962 UNDYB

Liberia 1940

1974 UNDYB

Mali 1890 1940 1976 UNDYB

Niger 1940 1960 1991ne DHS

Nigeria 1880 1930 1963 UNDYB

Saint Helena 1900 1950 1987 UNDYB

Togo 1880 1940 UNDYB

Cameroon 1890 1940 1976 UNDYB

Central African Republic 1900 1940 1975 UNDYB

Chad 1940 1960 1997td DHS

Democratic Republic of the Congo 1900 1950 1985 UNDYB

Gabon 1950 1970 2000ga DHS

Botswana 1940 1960 1991 UNDYB

Botswana 1880 1930 1964 UNDYB

South Africa 1860 1910 1950 UNDYB

South Africa 1920 1950 1980 UNDYB

Swaziland 1940 1950 1986 UNDYB

Swaziland 1880 1930 1966 UNDYB

Burundi 1910 1960 1990 UNDYB

Ethiopia (from 1993) 1940 1960 1992et DHS

Kenya 1940 1950 1979 UNDYB

Kenya 1960

1989 UNDYB

Kenya 1880 1930 1962 UNDYB

Madagascar 1890 1940 UNDYB

Mauritius 1890 1940 1970 UNDYB

Réunion 1910 1960 1988 UNDYB

Uganda 1950 1960 1991 UNDYB

Uganda 1890 1940 1969 UNDYB

United Republic of Tanzania 1880 1930 1967 UNDYB

Zambia 1890 1940 UNDYB

Zimbabwe 1940 1960 1994zw DHS

This following is an excerpt of the papers by A’Hearn et al. (2009),

on the pre-1800 estimates (especially those referring to half centuries)

and Prayon/Baten (2013), on the post-1800 estimates. For the citation of

A’Hearn et al. see above.

On the pre-1800 part

As signature ability can proxy for literacy, so accuracy of age

reporting can proxy for numeracy, and for human capital more generally.

A society in which individuals know their age only approximately is a

society in which life is not governed by the calendar and the clock but

by the seasonal cycle; in which birth dates are not recorded by families

or authorities; in which few individuals must document their age in

connection with privileges (voting, office-holding, marriage, holy

orders) or obligations (military service, taxation); in which

individuals who do know their birth year struggle to accurately

calculate their age from the current year. Approximation in age

awareness manifests itself in the phenomenon of “heaping” in

self-reported age data. Individuals lacking certain knowledge of their

age rarely state this openly, but choose instead a figure they deem

plausible. They do not choose randomly, but have a systematic tendency

to prefer “attractive” numbers, such as those ending in 5 or 0, even

numbers, or - in some societies - numbers with other specific terminal

digits. Such “age heaping” can be assessed in a wide range of

sources: census returns, tombstones, necrologies, muster lists, legal

records, or tax data, for example. While care must be exercised in

ascertaining possible biases, such data are much more widely available

than signature rates and other proxies for human capital.

Age heaping is a well-known phenomenon among demographers, development

economists, and anthropologists. Already a half-century ago influential

studies by Roberto Bachi and Robert Myers investigated age heaping and

its inverse correlation with education levels within and across

countries. Myers later demonstrated a similar inverse correlation

between age awareness and income at the individual level as well. For

others, including epidemiologists, age heaping is a problem to be

solved, a source of distortion in age-specific vital rates. Zelnik, for

example, assessed age misreporting in the United States between the 1880

and 1950 censuses.

Meanwhile, historians have studied age heaping as a topic of interest in

its own right. In their landmark study of Florentine tax records from

the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries David Herlihy and Christiane

Klapisch-Zuber document marked heaping on even numbers for children and

on multiples of five for adults, to a degree similar to that reported

for Egyptian census data in 1947. Age heaping diminished substantially

over successive tax enumerations from 1371 to 1470, and was more

prevalent among women, in rural areas and small towns, and among the

poor. Daniel Kaiser and Peyton Engel report similar age heaping levels

for early modern Russia. A well-known study is Richard Duncan-Jones’

analysis of grave monument inscriptions in twelve provinces of the Roman

Empire. He finds age heaping on multiples of five at rates not

dissimilar to those for medieval Tuscany or developing countries of the

1950s and ’60s and higher for women than men.

There has been little use of age heaping as an indicator of human

capital in the economic history literature. Joel Mokyr tests for

positive selection or “brain drain” in pre-famine Irish emigration

by comparing age heaping among migrants to the population at large.

Developing original measures of age heaping along the way, he finds no

support for the conventional wisdom that the best and brightest

emigrated. In other studies of Ireland, John Budd and Timothy Guinnane

report considerable heaping on multiples of five in the 1901 and 1911

censuses among the illiterate, the poor, and the aged; Cormac O’Grada,

among Dublin’s immigrant Jewish population. O’Grada interprets age

heaping as confirming that low Jewish literacy rates did not refer only

to the English language and, consequently, that their lower mortality

rate was the result of religious practices rather than education. For

Britain, Jason Long has assessed age heaping in linked samples from the

censuses of 1851 and 1881. A quarter of his 1851 school-aged children

reported ages in 1881 that were from two to five years different from

the expected 30 year increment. Countywide age heaping had a limited

impact on individual labor market outcomes, once other county

characteristics were controlled for, but individual age discrepancies

had a significant impact on socio-economic status, wages (10% higher for

0-discrepancy individuals), and the probability of rural-urban

migration.

To deploy age-heaping as a useful indicator of human capital, we require

a measure that allows us to track its variation over time and across

groups. We propose a variant of the well-known Whipple Index, which is

simple, robust, and easy to interpret. The Whipple Index is the ratio of

the observed frequency of ages ending in 0 or 5 to the frequency

predicted by assuming a uniform distribution of terminal digits (in

other words one fifth).

.

An index value of 500 would indicate perfect heaping on multiples of

five; a value of 100 no heaping at all; and a value of 0 perfect

“anti-heaping”. The notation in Equation 1 is meant to emphasize

that W must be defined over an interval in which each terminal digit

occurs an equal number of times, for example 30-39 or 23-72. The

prediction of equal terminal digit frequencies is what makes the Whipple

Index easy to calculate, but is also a source of inaccuracy. In a

typical population, frequencies decrease with age; in the interval 50-54

one would expect fewer 54 year olds than 50 year olds, even in the

absence of heaping. Restricting attention to intervals of (multiples of)

ten years helps mitigate this problem. A more obvious limitation of the

Whipple Index is that it can capture only heaping on multiples of five.

In practice, this is the overwhelmingly dominant form of heaping

observed for adults across a wide range of times and places in our data.

(Among children and adolescents even-heaping is common.)

In a separate study, we compare the statistical properties of the

Whipple Index with alternatives including measures proposed by Bachi,

Myers, and Mokyr. In simulation studies, the Whipple Index demonstrates

several advantages. First its mean is not scale dependent, meaning that

W can be compared across samples of widely varying size. Second, E(W)

increases linearly with heaping, again facilitating comparisons.

Finally, the coefficient of variation of W across random samples is

systematically lower than for the alternatives, at all sample sizes and

for all degrees of heaping. This leads to greater reliability in

correctly ranking samples according to the true extent of heaping in the

underlying populations. In this paper we employ a simple transformation

of the Whipple Index that can be interpreted as the share of individuals

that correctly report their age:

.

Note: this index was named in later publications ‘ABCC-Index’

(...)

?

On the post-1800 part

Based on the assumption that basic numerical skills are acquired during

the first decade of life, we calculate the ABCC index for birth cohorts.

Since mortality increases with higher ages, the frequencies of reported

ages ending in multiples of five would augment and lead to an

underestimation of the ABCC index. To overcome this problem, we spread

the final digits of 0 and 5 more evenly across the age ranges and define

the age-groups 23-32, 33-42, …, 73 to 82. In a second step, the

age-groups are assigned to the corresponding birth decades. In the case

that data overlap for one or several birth decades within a country

because more than one census was available for this country, we

calculated the arithmetic average of the indices. In the entire data

set, the birth decades range from the 1680s to the 1970s for some

countries, whereas for the majority of countries data are only available

for the birth decades from the 1870s to the 1940s for most individual

countries.

A major advantage of the age-heaping method is its consistent

calculation. This way, age-heaping results might be more easily

comparable across countries, whereas comparisons of literacy or

enrolment rates might be misleading due to significant measurement

differences or different school systems. Further, owing to usually high

drop-out rates in developing countries and heterogeneous teacher

quality, it can be argued that enrolment rates are less conclusive for

our goal as enrolment ratios are an input measure of human capital: Even

though a country might have high enrolment ratios, they do not permit

conclusions about the quality of education. Age-heaping on the other

hand is - like literacy - an output measure of human capital.

Recently, several studies confirmed a positive correlation between

age-heaping and other human capital indicators. In their global study on

age-heaping for the period 1880 to 1940, Crayen and Baten (2010a)

identified primary school enrolment as a main determinant of

age-heaping: an increase of enrolment rates led to a significant

decrease of the age-heaping level. A’Hearn, Baten, and Crayen (2009)

used a large U.S. census sample to perform a very detailed analysis of

the correlation between regional numeracy and literacy. Based on a

sample of 650,000 individuals from the 1850, 1870, and 1900 IPUMS U.S.

censuses, they found for the overall sample as well as for subsamples a

positive and statistically significant relationship between these two

human capital indicators. They also went back further in time and

studied the relationship of signature ability as a proxy for literacy

and age-heaping as a proxy for numeracy in early modern Europe. Here as

well they found a positive correlation between the two measures. In a

study on China, Baten et al. (2010) found a strong relationship between

the age-heaping and literacy among Chinese immigrants in the US born in

the 19th century. Additionally, Hippe (2011) examined systematically the

relationship of numeracy and literacy on the regional level in seven

European countries in the 19th century and in ten developing countries

in the 20th century. He found for each country separately a high

correlation between the two indicators.

Possible objections to the age-heaping method should be addressed here.

One concerns the uncertainty of what is actually being measured; is it

the age-awareness of the respondent during the interview or the

diligence of the reporting personnel? The other possible objection

relates to other forms of age-heaping, i.e., other patterns than the

heaping on multiples of five. Concerning the first objection, Crayen and

Baten (2010b) admit that the possibility of a potential bias always

exists if more than one person is involved in the creation of a

historical source. For example, if literacy is measured by analysing the

share of signatures in marriage contracts, there might have been priests

who were more or less interested in obtaining real signatures, as

opposed to just crosses or other symbols (Crayen and Baten (2010b:460)).

They argue, however, that the empirical findings in previous age-heaping

studies, namely that there is generally less numeracy among the lower

social strata and similar regional differences of age-heaping and

illiteracy, support their assumption that the age-awareness of the

respondent is captured and the bias of meticulous or inaccurate

reporting is negligible. A study by Scott and Sabagh (1970) supports the

assumption that it does not make a difference whether the individual or

the reporting personnel reports a rounded age if the true age is

unknown. They investigated the behaviour of canvassers during the

Moroccan Multi-Purpose Sample Survey of 1961-1963 and found that the

canvassers were indeed not free of reporting rounded ages of people that

did not know their age themselves. The interesting feature in this

context is that between 70 and 90 per cent (dependent on the underlying

age group) of the interviewed people did not know their age and

thereupon the historical calendar method was applied. Expressed in ABCC

values this would imply an overall numeracy level somewhere between 10

and 30 ABCC points. And indeed, this fits well the calculated

age-heaping level observed in Morocco for the census of 1960, namely an

ABCC level between 20 and 40.

To overrule the second objection, which is different heaping patterns,

we exclude in our study all individuals younger than 23 and older than

82 to minimise possible biases due to age effects. The very old are

dropped as mortality effects might distort the age-heaping indices.

Among teenagers and young adults, we often find a heaping pattern on

multiples of two instead of multiples of five, indicating a more precise

age-awareness than older age groups that heap on multiples of five. The

reason is probably that many important events in life, marriage,

military recruitment, and reaching legal age happen during the late

teens and early twenties; such occasions might increase age awareness.

Further, special cultural number preferences – like the dragon year or

the number eight in Chinese culture – do not seem to influence the

index much, as Baten et al. (2010) found in a study on China.

Crayen and Baten (2010a) also examined whether the degree of bureaucracy

in a country could account for lower age-heaping values, i.e., if the

government interacts with its citizens more regularly, the age-awareness

of the population might be higher than in countries without well

developed institutions, independently of one’s individual educational

attainment. To test this possible bureaucratic factor, they included two

explanatory variables, one measuring the ‘state antiquity’ and one

that accounts for the numbers of censuses performed in each country up

to the period under study. For all specifications, those variables

showed no significant influence on the age-heaping level of the

countries, leading to the conclusion that this ‘bureaucratic factor’

does not play an important role. The fact that countries with an early

introduction of birth registers and a high number of censuses show

higher age-awareness can be explained with the fact that these countries

introduced also schooling relatively early. Again, schooling outweighs

the independent bureaucratic effect. Somehow related to this is the

question of cultural differences in age-awareness. However, analysis

showed that only the East Asian region had systematically less

age-heaping than the other regions under study. This finding might be

due to the importance of the Chinese astrological calendar in daily

life, which relies on greater numerical ability in the population. In

conclusion, the correlation between age-heaping and other human capital

indicators is quite well established, and the ‘bureaucratic’ factor

does not invalidate this relationship (Crayen and Baten 2010b:458).

Additionally, could it be a problem that we construct our trends based

on different census years? Crayen and Baten (2010a) examined the

possible correlation of age and age-heaping and found only a systematic

influence of age on the heaping behaviour among the youngest age group:

23 to 32. People at this age tend to heap their age less than the older

age groups. Based on this observation, Crayen and Baten suggested an

adjustment of the numeracy index for the youngest birth cohort that we

applied in this study as well.

Bachi, Tendency; Myers, Instance and Accuracy.

Zelnik, Age Heaping.

For discussion of age heaping as a problem see Vallin, et al., New

estimate; Crockett and Crockett, Consequences discuss the issues for

historical research. See also U.N. Statistics Division, Nonsampling

Errors.

Herlihy and Klapisch-Zuber, Toscans.

Kaiser and Engel, Time.

Duncan-Jones, Structure. For a study of contemporary China, see Jowett

and Li, Age Heaping.

Mokyr, J., Why Ireland Starved.

Budd and Guinnane, Intentional; O’Grada, Dublin.

A’Hearn et al., Quantifying.

Manzel and Baten (2009) found the same strong relationship between

literacy and numeracy in a study on the regions of Argentina.

.

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youngest age group (23-32) is: (W-100)*0.25+W. For more details, see the

Appendix in Baten and Crayen (2010a).

Caribbean

Anguilla[No Data]

Antigua and Barbuda1500 (5)-2013 (21)

Aruba[No Data]

Bahamas1500 (5)-2013 (23)

Barbados1500 (5)-2013 (27)

Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba[No Data]

British Virgin Islands[No Data]

Cayman Islands[No Data]

Cuba1500 (8)-2012 (34)

Curaçao[No Data]

Dominica1500 (5)-2013 (20)

Dominican Republic1500 (6)-2013 (40)

Grenada1500 (5)-2013 (21)

Guadeloupe[No Data]

Haiti1500 (6)-2013 (36)

Jamaica1500 (6)-2013 (38)

Martinique[No Data]

Montserrat[No Data]

In 2010, the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) awarded a subsidy to the Clio Infra project, of which Jan Luiten van Zanden was the main applicant and which is hosted by the International Institute of Social History (IISH). Clio Infra has set up a number of interconnected databases containing worldwide data on social, economic, and institutional indicators for the past five centuries, with special attention to the past 200 years. These indicators allow research into long-term development of worldwide economic growth and inequality.

Global inequality is one of the key problems of the contemporary world. Some countries have (recently) become wealthy, other countries have remained poor. New theoretical developments in economics - such as new institutional economics, new economic geography, and new growth theory - and the rise of global economic and social history require such processes to be studied on a worldwide scale. Clio Infra provides datasets for the most important indicators. Economic and social historians from around the world have been working together in thematic collaboratories, in order to collect and share their knowledge concerning the relevant indicators of economic performance and its causes. The collected data have been standardized, harmonized, and stored for future use. New indicators to study inequality have been developed. The datasets are accessible through the Clio Infra portal which also offers possibilities for visualization of the data. Clio Infra offers the opportunity to greatly enhance our understanding of the origins, causes and character of the process of global inequality.